In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, a surge of political attack ads targeting transgender individuals has flooded the airwaves. However, new polling data suggests that this strategy may be backfiring for Republicans. A recent survey conducted by Data for Progress indicates that a majority of voters perceive these ads as “mean-spirited” and are growing weary of the focus on transgender issues at the expense of pressing concerns like the economy and healthcare.
According to the poll, 54% of likely voters agree that political attack ads targeting the transgender community have become “mean-spirited and out of hand.” This sentiment is shared across the political spectrum, with 31% of Republican voters concurring. The data reflects a significant portion of the electorate that is disenchanted with negative rhetoric and seeks a more respectful discourse.
The disapproval extends beyond the ads themselves. More than 60% of respondents to the survey, including the majority of independents and 41% of Republicans, referred to the GOP candidates’ anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric as “sad and shameful.” These findings suggest that such messaging may alienate voters rather than attract them.
An overwhelming 80% of voters—including 85% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 82% of independents—believe that political candidates should “spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time addressing voters’ priority issues like the economy and inflation.” This consensus highlights a disconnect between the Republican campaign strategy and the electorate’s priorities.
Economic concerns consistently rank at the top of voters’ lists. A recent Gallup poll corroborates this, showing that issues like inflation, healthcare, and job security are paramount for most Americans. The emphasis on transgender issues by some GOP candidates appears to be at odds with the electorate’s desire for solutions to everyday challenges.
The GOP’s High-Stakes Gamble on Anti-Trans Messaging
Despite these indicators, former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates have doubled down on anti-transgender messaging. Millions of dollars have been funneled into ads that attempt to paint Democratic opponents as extreme for supporting transgender rights. One prominent ad criticizes Vice President Kamala Harris for advocating gender-affirming care for incarcerated transgender individuals, ending with the stark assertion: “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
The ad campaign aims to exploit cultural divisions, but studies suggest this approach may not be effective. Ground Media, a strategic communications group, released a study indicating that such ads do not result in a significant shift in voter choice or mobilization. Instead, they have the unintended consequence of reducing public acceptance of transgender people across nearly all demographics.
This strategy mirrors tactics used in previous election cycles. In 2022, Republicans heavily focused on transgender athletes and healthcare in their campaigns. However, this emphasis failed to deliver the anticipated electoral gains. Paul Cordes, Chief of Staff for the Michigan Republican Party, noted in a post-election memo that there were “more ads on transgender sports than inflation, gas prices, and bread-and-butter issues that could have swayed independent voters.” The GOP subsequently lost control of the Michigan Legislature for the first time in a decade.
Transgender Issues Rank Low Among Voter Concerns
Transgender issues are among the least important factors driving voters to the polls. A Gallup poll found that topics like transgender athletes and healthcare are low priorities compared to economic concerns. The Data for Progress survey reinforces this, with 80% of respondents urging candidates to pivot towards pressing issues affecting their daily lives.
Moreover, voters are skeptical of the legislative focus on transgender rights. Another 55% of those surveyed believe that state lawmakers have introduced “too much” legislation aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people over the past year. According to the American Civil Liberties Union, Republicans primarily introduced over 500 anti-LGBTQ+ bills in state legislatures in 2024. However, nearly all of these bills failed to become law, suggesting a misalignment with public opinion.
The survey reveals a significant shift in public opinion towards supporting transgender rights. When asked which political party they trust more to handle transgender issues, a majority of voters sided with Democrats. While voters are split on which party has taken a more extreme stance on trans policy, 52% indicated they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports transgender rights. This includes 80% of Democrats and 46% of independents.
Conversely, 57% of Republican voters said they are most likely to vote for a candidate who opposes transgender rights. This polarization highlights the partisan divide on the issue but also underscores that a sizable portion of the electorate favors candidates who advocate for transgender equality.
An overwhelming 74% of all voters surveyed agree that transgender people deserve to be treated with dignity and respect. This includes 86% of Democrats, 78% of independents, and 58% of Republicans. These numbers reflect a growing recognition of transgender individuals’ rights and humanity across the political spectrum.
For transgender individuals and their allies, the political climate has been fraught with challenges. The rise in anti-trans rhetoric and legislative efforts has contributed to an environment of fear and uncertainty. The Human Rights Campaign reported an “epidemic” of violence against transgender people, with at least 27 transgender and gender-expansive individuals violently killed in the first ten months of 2024.
Activists argue that political attacks not only undermine the rights of transgender Americans but also exacerbate the risks they face daily. The focus on transgender issues as a political wedge has real-world consequences, affecting mental health, safety, and access to necessary healthcare.
Advocacy and Pushback
In response to the negative messaging, advocacy groups have intensified efforts to promote understanding and support for transgender individuals. GLAAD, an LGBTQ+ media advocacy organization, partnered with Ground Media to launch ad campaigns advocating for broad support of transgender Americans and their families. These initiatives aim to counteract harmful narratives and emphasize shared values of dignity and respect.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also addressed the issue directly. In an interview with Fox News, she defended her support for providing gender-affirming care to incarcerated transgender individuals, noting that the government is legally required to provide medically necessary care—a practice that continued under the Trump administration. She criticized the focus on transgender issues as a distraction from more pressing concerns affecting Americans.
“As it relates to the biggest issues that affect the American people, it’s really quite remote,” Harris said. “They are trying to incite fear where there is none.”
The Data for Progress poll suggests that the Republican strategy of emphasizing anti-transgender messaging may not resonate with the broader electorate. With voters expressing a clear preference for candidates who address economic issues and prioritize respect for all individuals, continuing down this path could prove detrimental.
Political analysts note that relying on divisive cultural issues may energize a segment of the base but risks alienating moderate and independent voters crucial for winning elections. The findings indicate an opportunity for candidates who focus on unifying messages and address the substantive issues that voters care about most.
The Bottom Line
As the election approaches, the data signals a need for political campaigns to recalibrate their strategies. Voters are calling for a focus on the economy, healthcare, and other pressing matters rather than divisive rhetoric targeting marginalized communities.
For transgender individuals, their families, and allies, the poll’s findings offer hope that the majority of Americans support their right to live with dignity and respect. Advocacy efforts will continue to play a vital role in shaping public discourse and combating misinformation.
The upcoming elections present an opportunity for candidates to demonstrate leadership by addressing the real concerns of their constituents and embracing policies that promote inclusivity and equality. In doing so, they not only align with the electorate’s priorities but also contribute to building a more just and compassionate society.
