As the United States prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to assume office on January 20, 2025, the transgender community faces an uncertain future, particularly regarding issues of sports participation, gender identity protections, and broader civil rights. A recent survey conducted by The New York Times and Ipsos reveals widespread opposition to transgender women participating in women’s sports—a contentious issue that has become a flashpoint in American political and cultural discourse.
Survey Results Show Strong Opposition
The survey posed a critical question to 2,128 participants: “Thinking about transgender female athletes—meaning athletes who were male at birth but who currently identify as female—do you think they should or should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports?” The results were stark:
- 79% of respondents said transgender women should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports.
- Among Democrats or Democrat-leaning individuals (1,025 participants), 67% expressed opposition.
- For Republicans (1,022 participants), the opposition was nearly unanimous at 94%.
- Independents, the smallest subgroup surveyed (81 participants), showed the greatest reluctance, with 64% opposed and 26% refusing to answer.
These results underscore a growing consensus across political lines, with a notable shift in Democratic perspectives.
Cultural and Political Context
The question of transgender athletes in women’s sports reached national prominence in 2024. A series of high-profile stories and court cases fueled public debate, making it a defining issue in November’s presidential election. The topic became a rallying cry for Trump and other Republican candidates, who used it to energize their base while swaying moderate voters.
A national exit poll conducted by the Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee found that 70% of moderate voters considered Trump’s stance on transgender issues—particularly his opposition to transgender athletes in women’s sports and his criticism of gender-affirming care for minors—as important to their voting decision. Among moderates:
- 6% said it was their most important issue.
- 44% deemed it “very important.”
Legislative and Judicial Developments
With Trump poised to take office, Republicans are advancing the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act through Congress. The bill, which passed the House with bipartisan support, seeks to prohibit transgender women from competing in federally funded women’s sports leagues. It now heads to the Republican-controlled Senate, where it is expected to pass.
Jay W. Richards of the Heritage Foundation anticipates swift action from Trump’s administration to address what he calls the “incursions of gender ideology.” Potential executive orders may include:
- Defining male and female based on biological sex.
- Restricting federal funding for gender-affirming care, particularly for minors.
- Prohibiting male prisoners from being housed in female facilities.
- Reversing military accommodations for transgender service members.
“President Trump could establish the tone and direction of his new administration on one of the most important political and cultural issues of our time,” Richards said.
Impact on the Transgender Community
These policy shifts have alarmed many in the transgender community, who fear that legislative changes will erode their rights and safety. The expansion of Title IX under the Biden administration—which interpreted sex-based protections to include gender identity—had been a significant step forward for transgender individuals. However, a federal judge recently struck down these regulations, paving the way for further rollbacks.
May Mailman, director of the Independent Women’s Law Center, outlined how Trump could use executive authority to rescind protections linked to Title IX. She argued that this approach would “protect women’s sports and private spaces,” while critics see it as an attack on transgender rights.
Broader Public Sentiment
The Times and Ipsos poll reflects broader skepticism about accommodating transgender individuals. Nearly 70% of Americans believe biological males should not compete in women’s sports. A similar survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago in June 2024 found that 65% of respondents opposed allowing transgender athletes to compete according to their gender identity.
The divide extends to gender-affirming care for minors:
- 71% of Americans believe children under 18 should not be prescribed puberty blockers or hormones.
- 49% feel society has gone too far in accommodating transgender individuals, compared to 21% who believe it hasn’t gone far enough.
What Lies Ahead
Trump’s policy proposals, including mass deportations and reducing federal focus on foreign aid, further reflect a conservative agenda that prioritizes cultural and domestic issues. However, for transgender Americans, the looming concern is the rollback of rights and protections that many consider fundamental to their dignity and safety.
The Supreme Court is set to weigh in on state bans on transgender healthcare for minors later this year. Evidence questioning the efficacy of gender-affirming surgeries for improving mental health has emboldened opponents of these procedures. Meanwhile, transgender advocates emphasize that such healthcare is life-saving and critical for reducing suicidality among transgender youth.
The Bottom Line
For the transgender community and its allies, these survey results and impending policy shifts are sobering. While public opinion appears to be moving toward greater restrictions on transgender rights, the fear of losing hard-won progress is palpable.
“This is more than just about sports,” said one activist. “It’s about whether our society values and respects transgender people as full and equal members. If we let this go unchallenged, what comes next?”
As the political landscape changes, the transgender community is bracing for battles on multiple fronts. From the right to participate in sports to access to healthcare and public spaces, the stakes could not be higher. For families, friends, and allies, the question is clear: How can we stand in solidarity to ensure that transgender individuals can live with dignity, safety, and equality in the years to come?
The fight for transgender rights has always been one of resilience and courage. As January 20 approaches, that spirit will be needed more than ever.
