Transgender Americans are navigating a complex emotional landscape as the 2024 presidential election approaches, spurred by President Joe Biden’s recent decision not to seek re-election. A recent survey by the LGBT health organization Folx demonstrates the complex interplay between activism, hope, and anxiety within the transgender community as the political stakes rise.
The survey, conducted shortly after Biden’s exit from the race, paints a picture of a community that is simultaneously more hopeful yet deeply anxious about the future. The data reflects an emotional shift that has rippled through the transgender population, particularly in light of the Democratic Party’s pivot towards Vice President Kamala Harris as the new nominee.
A Surge in Hopefulness
According to Folx’s findings, a significant 68% of LGBT individuals surveyed reported feeling “more hopeful” following Biden’s announcement. Among transgender respondents, this sense of hope increased by 34%, underscoring the optimism that Harris might offer stronger advocacy for transgender rights. The belief that Harris has a better chance of defeating former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, also contributes to this renewed sense of hope.
According to Haley Everheart, vice president of marketing for Folx, this optimism is a result of the belief that Harris might be a more successful opponent of Trump than Biden might have been. “The deep fear is primarily about Trump winning,” Everheart explains. “There’s a sentiment that it’s more likely that Trump will not win post-Biden dropping out and Harris taking over.”
Persistent Anxiety Amid Political Uncertainty
Despite the rise in hopefulness, anxiety remains a dominant emotion among transgender Americans. A staggering 92% of respondents continue to feel “anxious” about the upcoming election, a figure unchanged since before Biden’s decision to bow out. The anxiety stems from the high stakes of the election and the potential impact on LGBTQ+ rights, especially given the current political climate.
“The stakes feel really high,” Everheart says. “The sense that, very swiftly, things could go from challenging to impossible and downright scary is really there for us in our community.”
Transgender voters are particularly concerned about the implications of a second Trump term. Trump’s promise to enact policies targeting the LGBTQ+ community, including nationwide bans on gender-affirming health care for minors and restrictions on transgender student-athletes, has heightened fears. A significant 89% of survey respondents expressed “extreme” concern about the prospect of another Trump presidency.
One respondent from California shared their fear: “I am fearful for another Trump presidency. I feel my life and the lives of others are at stake. I wonder daily if I need to flee or hide.”
Protective Measures in Anticipation
In response to the anxiety and fear surrounding the election, many transgender Americans are taking proactive steps to safeguard their rights and well-being. According to the Folx survey, 67% of respondents have already taken, or are planning to take, protective measures ahead of the election. These measures include stockpiling medication, expediting or delaying medical appointments, and updating legal documents such as passports and gender markers.
The urgency of these preparations reflects the community’s deep concern about the potential for restrictive policies under a future administration. For many, the election represents a critical juncture that could drastically affect their ability to access gender-affirming care and other essential services.
The Political Landscape: A Mixed Bag of Emotions
The survey results also reveal a complex relationship between transgender Americans and the current political figures. While Biden has been hailed as one of the most pro-LGBTQ+ presidents in history, his administration has faced criticism from some within the transgender community. The White House’s controversial stance on transition surgeries for minors, which advocates believe should be reserved for adults, has drawn backlash.
In contrast, 52% of respondents said that Vice President Harris “very much” addressed their concerns, a number that is 10% higher than Biden’s. However, Harris’s past actions, such as her role in blocking gender-affirming surgery for a transgender woman in a California state prison, have not been forgotten. Although Harris later apologized, the incident continues to be a point of contention for some voters.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, is overwhelmingly viewed as hostile to LGBTQ+ rights. A full 83% of respondents said Trump does “not at all” address the concerns of the LGBTQ+ community, and his return to the White House is seen as an “extreme” threat by 89% of those surveyed.
The Impact on Health Care Access
One of the most pressing issues for transgender Americans in this election is health care access. An overwhelming 89% of respondents believe that the election will have a “major impact” on health care availability at the federal level, while 65% foresee similar effects at the state level. This concern is particularly acute among younger voters, with 43% of transgender voters aged 18-34 citing LGBTQ+ issues, including access to gender-affirming care, as their top voting priority.
The potential rollback of gender-affirming care is a significant source of anxiety, especially in light of the increasing number of states that have passed laws restricting such care for minors. Since 2021, half of U.S. states have enacted legislation banning gender-affirming treatments for those under 18, and some states, like Florida and Missouri, have extended restrictions to adults as well.
One respondent captured the community’s fear succinctly: “I am terrified of Trump winning. If he wins and presses the anti-LGBTQ+ legislations he’s campaigning on, I feel I will have to either flee the country or commit suicide. I cannot live hiding my gender and bearing gender dysphoria for the rest of my life.”
A Community Ready to Mobilize
Despite the pervasive anxiety, transgender Americans are not succumbing to despair. Instead, the survey indicates a community that is ready to mobilize and make their voices heard in the upcoming election. A remarkable 90% of respondents are registered voters, and of those not yet registered, 37% plan to do so before the election.
The survey underscores the determination of transgender voters to play an active role in shaping the outcome of the election. With LGBTQ+ rights at the forefront of their concerns, they are keenly aware that their votes could be decisive in determining the future direction of the country.
In 2020, LGBTQ+ voters were credited with helping to secure Biden’s victory, and it appears that they are once again poised to exert significant influence in 2024. As Everheart notes, “We might be scared and in survival mode, but we’re also ready to do the work.”
The Bottom Line
As the 2024 presidential election looms, transgender Americans find themselves at a critical turning point. The survey results from Folx highlight a community that is both hopeful and anxious, with a deep awareness of the stakes involved in the election. The decisions made at the polls will have far-reaching implications for LGBTQ+ rights, health care access, and the safety of transgender individuals.
This election is not just about choosing a leader; it’s about defining the future for transgender Americans and ensuring that their rights and dignity are upheld. The road ahead may be fraught with challenges, but the transgender community is ready to face them head-on, armed with hope, determination, and an unwavering commitment to justice.
As the nation prepares for the upcoming election, the voices of transgender Americans will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome—and in safeguarding the rights of future generations.
